Kenya: A Nation On The Rocks 2009

“Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity”.

Martin Luther King, Jr. (January 15, 1929 – April 4, 1968)

Failed state Index

The index’s ranks are based on twelve indicators of state vulnerability – four social, two economic and six political.The indicators are not designed to forecast when states may experience violence or collapse. Instead, they are meant to measure a state’s vulnerability to collapse or conflict.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga

Social Indicators

1. Demographic pressures: including the pressures deriving from high population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources. The pressure from a population’s settlement patterns and physical settings, including border disputes, ownership or occupancy of land, access to transportation outlets, control of religious or historical sites, and proximity to environmental hazards.

2. Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples: forced uprooting of large communities as a result of random or targeted violence and/or repression, causing food shortages, disease, lack of clean water, land competition, and turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems, both within and between countries.

3. Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance: based on recent or past injustices, which could date back centuries. Including atrocities committed with impunity against communal groups and/or specific groups singled out by state authorities, or by dominant groups, for persecution or repression. Institutionalized political exclusion. Public scapegoating of groups believed to have acquired wealth, status or power as evidenced in the emergence of “hate” radio, pamphleteering and stereotypical or nationalistic political rhetoric.

4. Chronic and sustained human flight: both the “brain drain” of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of “the middle class.” Growth of exile/expat communities are also used as part of this indicator.

Economic Indicators

5. Uneven economic development along group lines: determined by group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status. Also measured by group-based poverty levels, infant mortality rates, education levels.

6. Sharp and/or severe economic decline: measured by a progressive economic decline of the society as a whole (using: per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality rates, poverty levels, business failures.) A sudden drop in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign investment or debt payments. Collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight. Failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments.

Political Indicators

7. Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state: endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites and resistance to transparency, accountability and political representation. Includes any widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes.

8. Progressive deterioration of public services: a disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation. Also using the state apparatus for agencies that serve the ruling elites, such as the security forces, presidential staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies.

9. Widespread violation of human rights: an emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated. Outbreaks of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence against innocent civilians. A rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied due process consistent with international norms and practices. Any widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights, including those of individuals, groups or cultural institutions (e.g., harassment of the press, politicization of the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of political opponents, religious or cultural persecution.)

10. Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’: an emergence of elite or praetorian guards that operate with impunity. Emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias that terrorize political opponents, suspected “enemies,” or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition. An “army within an army” that serves the interests of the dominant military or political clique. Emergence of rival militias, guerilla forces or private armies in an armed struggle or protracted violent campaigns against state security forces.

11. Rise of factionalised elites: a fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines. Any use of nationalistic political rhetoric by ruling elites, often in terms of communal irredentism or of communal solidarity (e.g., “ethnic cleansing” or “defending the faith.”)

12. Intervention of other states or external factors: military or Para-military engagement in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside armies, states, identity groups or entities that affect the internal balance of power or resolution of the conflict. Intervention by donors, especially if there is a tendency towards over-dependence on foreign aid or peacekeeping missions.

Kenya: guilty on all  twelve counts


3 thoughts on “Kenya: A Nation On The Rocks 2009

  1. “Also using the state apparatus for agencies that serve the ruling elites, such as the security forces, presidential staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies.”

    “Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’: an emergence of elite or praetorian guards that operate with impunity.”

    Here’s a list:
    – Diplomatic Police,
    – Tourist Police,
    – Kwekwe Squad,
    – Rhino Squad,
    – Recce Company,
    – Rapid Deployment Unit (RDU – the AP’s version of GSU),
    – Flying Squad
    – Anti-terrorism Unit

    All these units are operating with impunity, have access to lots of cash and the best equipment all designed to protect the interests of the ruling elite, diplomats and foreigners.

    Conversely, all these units do not cater for the common mwananchi and many of the units mentioned above have been implicated in the torture, killings and disappearances of thousands of Kenyans. Justice will prevail even if it takes 50 years.

  2. The sooner this nasty thing called kenya dies the sonner we can have our own proper functioning country . when i think of kikuyus i think of croatia. We can have our own country.How long will we continue carrying this nation on our backs.68% of this country’s GDP is tied to Our hard work.Yes we can! let it collapse

    Croatia is much better than yugoslavia.The croats are hard workers and they believed they can. How long shall we mourn for Kenya. We should burry it and move on to better things.

  3. Mwangi.
    what short-sighted nonsense you have penned? And when we have buried it and broken out into our homeland, how will you stop the Kirinyaga people from breaking away, or the Muranga for that matter? Where will it stop? Do you imagine any sort of marraige can be premised on such transient nonsense? Even your father’s household has division and you must not pretend its not so. Understand that the natural tendency of the human race is to move away from each other, in response to an ingrained imperative to increase and multiply as God had instructed. Keeping together is therefore a deliberate and rational decision we must all take. Come on my brother!!

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